I have been taking a look at the outright market for the Champions League since the draw for the quarter and semi finals was made last week.
The draw produced little noticeable changes in price amongst the favourites, and all of the quarter finals have clear favourites to progress.
Real Madrid have the easiest tie of the round, and they will get past APOEL without too many problems. Bayern Munich will also expect to see off Marseille quite comfortably, the French side beat a shambolic Inter Milan in the last round, but they are only ninth in the Ligue 1 and have lost five in a row domestically.
Bayern are inconsistent themselves and it hard to know what form they will arrive in for the remaining games in the competition, but their last three games have produced wins of 7-0, 7-1 and 6-0.
Only a few weeks ago they were losing 1-0 at FC Basle though, and have won just one of four away ties in Europe this season, back in September at Villarreal.
Wins for those two sides will set up a semi-final between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Bayern have the incentive of the final being played at the Allianz Arena, but it is hard to see beyond Madrid doing enough to get through.
Jose Mourinho will be desperate to get Madrid to a Champions League final on his watch and his side should have the class to beat Bayern over two legs.
In this side of the draw it is Madrid's price of 3.4 that interests me. I am convinced they will reach the final, and even if they face Barcelona I don't see them starting at 3.4 in a two-team market for competition winner.
I actually fancy them to win the tournament this year and I would be keen to back them now and consider laying some off if they do indeed face Barcelona in the final.
The markets confidence in Barcelona is quite something, and I am very tempted to lay them at a price of 2.3.
To win the trophy they will have to beat AC Milan, Chelsea and probably Real Madrid. I know they are the greatest club side for many a year but I can't be having them at that price.
They have hit a magnificent run of form recently but that is a very tough draw for them to negotiate. They placed AC Milan twice in the group stage and won 5-4 over the two games. Milan showed their best and worst side over two legs against Arsenal, but they scored twice home and away against Barcelona in the groups, and with the attacking talent they have, they will have a go at Barca.
Chelsea should do enough to beat Benfica and set up a potential semi-final with Barcelona, if they get past Milan. I am still not convinced fully by Chelsea this season, even since Di Matteo took over, but there is a core of senior players at the club that are desperate to win this competition.
This season could be the final chance for players such as Terry, Lampard and Drogba. Chelsea have caused Barcelona problems before with their physicality and Barcelona would be in for two very tough matches if they did face Chelsea.
Barcelona's back four has been a weak spot this season, they have conceded at the Nou Camp to Granada (3), Gijon (1), Real Sociedad (1) and Real Betis (2) since mid January, so AC Milan and Chelsea will be confident they can score goals home and away against Barcelona.
Therefore I will be looking at two options for the outright market as things stand, a back of Real Madrid or a lay of Barcelona. Given Barca's difficult passage to the final, and probable final opponent, I think a lay of Barcelona, as crazy as it sounds, may offer the best value.
The draw produced little noticeable changes in price amongst the favourites, and all of the quarter finals have clear favourites to progress.
Real Madrid have the easiest tie of the round, and they will get past APOEL without too many problems. Bayern Munich will also expect to see off Marseille quite comfortably, the French side beat a shambolic Inter Milan in the last round, but they are only ninth in the Ligue 1 and have lost five in a row domestically.
Bayern are inconsistent themselves and it hard to know what form they will arrive in for the remaining games in the competition, but their last three games have produced wins of 7-0, 7-1 and 6-0.
Only a few weeks ago they were losing 1-0 at FC Basle though, and have won just one of four away ties in Europe this season, back in September at Villarreal.
Wins for those two sides will set up a semi-final between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Bayern have the incentive of the final being played at the Allianz Arena, but it is hard to see beyond Madrid doing enough to get through.
Jose Mourinho will be desperate to get Madrid to a Champions League final on his watch and his side should have the class to beat Bayern over two legs.
In this side of the draw it is Madrid's price of 3.4 that interests me. I am convinced they will reach the final, and even if they face Barcelona I don't see them starting at 3.4 in a two-team market for competition winner.
I actually fancy them to win the tournament this year and I would be keen to back them now and consider laying some off if they do indeed face Barcelona in the final.
The markets confidence in Barcelona is quite something, and I am very tempted to lay them at a price of 2.3.
To win the trophy they will have to beat AC Milan, Chelsea and probably Real Madrid. I know they are the greatest club side for many a year but I can't be having them at that price.
They have hit a magnificent run of form recently but that is a very tough draw for them to negotiate. They placed AC Milan twice in the group stage and won 5-4 over the two games. Milan showed their best and worst side over two legs against Arsenal, but they scored twice home and away against Barcelona in the groups, and with the attacking talent they have, they will have a go at Barca.
Chelsea should do enough to beat Benfica and set up a potential semi-final with Barcelona, if they get past Milan. I am still not convinced fully by Chelsea this season, even since Di Matteo took over, but there is a core of senior players at the club that are desperate to win this competition.
This season could be the final chance for players such as Terry, Lampard and Drogba. Chelsea have caused Barcelona problems before with their physicality and Barcelona would be in for two very tough matches if they did face Chelsea.
Barcelona's back four has been a weak spot this season, they have conceded at the Nou Camp to Granada (3), Gijon (1), Real Sociedad (1) and Real Betis (2) since mid January, so AC Milan and Chelsea will be confident they can score goals home and away against Barcelona.
Therefore I will be looking at two options for the outright market as things stand, a back of Real Madrid or a lay of Barcelona. Given Barca's difficult passage to the final, and probable final opponent, I think a lay of Barcelona, as crazy as it sounds, may offer the best value.
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